When it comes to sports wagering, it’s never too early to start evaluating your next bet. That’s why – with two weeks on the NFL schedule now complete – I am going to review the costliest mistakes I’ve seen a lot pro football bettors making through Week 2.
But first, I am going to take a look at a few of my favorite overall sports wagering metrics for Weeks 1 and 2.
- If you like picking underdogs, underdogs went 9-7 against the spread (ATS) in Week 2 after going 10-6 ATS in Week 1. That means so far this season, that just betting the “dogs” has produced a record of 19-13.
- What’s more, underdogs have historically provided additional value in games with low totals. This season’s underdogs have gone 9-5 ATS when the closing total is 44 or less.
- Home underdogs continued to provide profitable returns in Week 2 of the NFL season. They went 3-1 ATS last week, pushing their record to 35-20 ATS (63.6%) since the start of the 2003 season.
- Home teams went just 5-11 ATS in Week 1, but bounced back with a 9-7 ATS record in Week 2. On the season, home teams have gone 14-18 ATS.
These are just a few of the big picture sports wagering stats that I look at each week in order to get a sense of the sports-wagering trends.
One of the Biggest Mistakes Sports Bettors Make
But, more importantly, pinpointing the success of wagering on the underdog leads me to one of the biggest mistake that most sports bettors make and that’s…
…not having the mindset to trust their contrarian instincts — meaning that they are unwilling to go against the public consensus when the odds and potential payoff are in their favor.
It’s the confidence to go against the crowd that separates the winners from the losers in sports betting. That’s because contrarians know that the best moneymaking opportunities in sports wagering are found when their assessment of a bet differs significantly from the line that that the Sports Book posts. When they see a difference, the most successful bettors have the courage to act on it and not hesitate.
But, while being a contrarian is desirable, the simple act of being a contrarian by itself does not guarantee sports betting riches. That’s because successful sports wagering is not about automatically going against public opinion.
The other piece of the puzzle — and THIS is a BIG piece –is being BUSINESSLIKE in your approach so that you can IDENTIFY VALUE — with value being defined as, “the gap between the posted line and the most likely outcome of a game”.
This is where a lot of sports bettors fail, especially early in the season; because they are either relying on luck, a gut feeling or betting in a helter-skelter way. They get the bright idea one day that they will get rich quick by betting on sports…despite not having a basic understanding of probability theory.
They want the big-bang for their buck, so they play the long odds land look for the big payoff. They live for the action without paying any attention to sports wagering value.
The problem with that strategy is that without a plan, they’re likely to lose a lot of their bets — which then causes them to throw up their hands and say that sports betting is not a winnable game. But that’s just not true. Sports betting is indeed a winnable game, and that’s where the businesslike bettor comes in.
Turn Your Passion for Sports Into a Compound Money Machine
My brand new online course, “Changing The Game: How to Profit from Your Passion for Sports” will show you how to avoid the common mistakes many sports bettors make early in the NFL season.
It will teach you how to be businesslike in your approach to sports betting, and how to SELECTIVELY identify the high-value bets so that you will have confidence to trust your contrarian instincts and act decisively when you see a bet where the odds on your side.
Why You Must Take a Businesslike Approach When Betting on Sports
The businesslike bettor knows that sports wagering is most successful when it is conducted in a systematic way which means placing bets using a disciplined approach based on sound arithmetic, not just some over confident gut feeling of optimism.
Businesslike bettors use a repeatable approach that that can be applied consistently over and over again to grind out profits. What’s more, because they have done their game analysis and have drilled in on the facts and stats that matter, they have confidence in their information, knowledge and judgment as well as their process.
And here’s why it pays off big time to be businesslike in your approach to sports betting.
That’s because the informed player who conducts himself in a businesslike manner has a huge advantage over the other players in the sports betting markets. While it may not seem like it, you are really competing against the other bettors — not the sports book — when wagering on sports.
And it is precisely for this reason that your biggest single ally in sports wagering is the foolish behavior of bettors who use seat-of-the-pants strategies; in the end, their money is just sitting there waiting to be taken.
That’s why I created my Get In and Win System, it’s based on time-tested Wall Street investment principles that will show you how to break away from the pack, identify high-value wagers and give you the confidence to act on your contrarian instincts. What’s more, Get In and Win System will show you how to avoid another early season mistake that plagues many novice and experienced sports bettors– not being SELECTIVE in their approach.
There’s a lot of excitement now with the NFL season heading into week three. Most sports bettors understandably get caught up in all the hoopla and start betting frantically so they can get in all the action…which is really just a recipe for disaster.
You Don’t Have to Swing at Every Pitch
Since there are a limited number of NFL games each week, a lot of sports bettors suffer from the fear of missing something (commonly known as FOMS) and mistakenly believe that they must bet on each and every game. But that’s not the way it works; if you are serious about sports betting and want to make money consistently, you must be SELECTIVE in your approach.
When betting on sports, your objective is simply to win a high percentage of your wagers. In the process, it’s obvious that you don’t want to risk losing your precious sports wagering capital.
In sports betting, risk can be defined as anything which unnecessarily puts you in a position of losing money. To be a successful sports bettor, you must constantly be aware of risk and avoid taking on too much.
The primary risk management tool in a sports bettor’s toolbox is SELECTIVITY. What I mean by this is that you should place wagers only on those games where you have a real advantage. And how do you do this? By keeping your wagers focused only on high-value bets (which mean PASSING on a lot of games).
That’s when you greatly increase your odds of sports-wagering success–when you are selective and only bet on when the odds are squarely on your side!
That’s because the great thing about sports betting, unlike baseball, is that there are no called strikes. You can stand at the plate and let the sports book throw pitch after pitch right down the middle, and you don’t have to swing! If the “pitch” the Sports Book is throwing is, “New England -7” and you don’t know enough to decide on that bet, you can let it go right by. There is no umpire to call a strike.
In sports betting, taking a swing is entirely at your own discretion. There is only one way to strike out, and that’s if you swing and miss, so there is no reason to swing unless you see the pitch – or a bet – that you want. But for some reason, most sports bettors can’t or won’t do this.
If you can be selective, you will win. Now, you won’t win all the time — no one does — but you’ll win more often, probably far more often, than you’ll lose. And since you will be diversifying your bets over many different games each, every week you will be able to reduce your risk of loss and improve your odds of coming out way ahead.
Until next time,
Bill has attained and holds the prestigious credentials of Certified Public Accountant (CPA), Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is also the creator of The Get in and Win System produced in conjunction with Weiss Educational Services. During his career, Bill has founded his own accounting firm, served as the managing director of a large regional trust company and held the positions of senior executive officer and CEO in a world renowned publicly traded investment management company.