Every morning I put out a free you tube video called “The Whisper of the Day”. It’s my hottest pick of the day. It’s either a day trade or many times it’s a longer swing trade. I don’t just call out a stock and say buy it or short it.
There is always a level that I’m bullish or bearish on. It’s usually based on premarket price action, a dark pool print, or a high-volume candlestick pattern.
In this case, I didn’t have a dark pool print, but a high volume up thrust candle.
For those that have studied Wyckoff, you know what I’m talking about, but for those of you who haven’t, here is a summary of the Wyckoff Up Thrust.
- There must be a line of visible resistance on the chart (the supply line).
- A Wyckoff Up Thrust occurs when price moves above a resistance line but the move attracts sellers not buyers. An Up Thrust is a Failed breakout.
- The initial decline from the Up Thrust finds a short-term bottom and prices lift to retest the High of the Up Thrust but the attempted retest generally on lower volume turns out to be a swing failure and price resumes downside.
I found the perfect Up Thrust on Alcoa, symbol AA and I put this into my Whisper of the day Video for February 15th, 2017
Here is the link so you can listen to it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8b-MtHtHbk
Below is the daily chart for Alcoa pointing out the Supply line, the Up Thrust and the Lower volume test candle after the Upthrust where prices resumed to the downside.
If you’ve been reading my previous articles or have listened in on my webinars you know that I also turn bearish when the 4 exponential moving average (hot pink) crosses below the 8 exponential moving average (black) which happened on February 16th.
We have Bearish momentum combined with Bearish patterns. Therefore, we have been shorting Alcoa in my live trading room once it fell below $38.18 as I had pointed out in my Whisper of the day Video.
Let’s look at the weekly chart of Alcoa. I’ve spotted a bearish engulfing pattern as well.
You can see that the last weekly candle in red has engulfed the previous smaller bodied candle.
This pattern has a 79% success rate of a bearish reversal per Thomas Bulkowski a well-known expert on Candle sticks http://www.thepatternsite.com/BearEngulfing.html
79% success rate for any candle stick pattern is very high. Most are only 50-60% success rate. We also have the bearish high volume Up Thrust on the daily chart as well. Wait, there’s more, let me show you another chart. Let’s look at Equity Clocks Seasonality chart for Alcoa.
As you can see, February is usually a bearish month for Alcoa, so we have bearish patterns within bearish patterns, however stay tuned for the dark pool buy prints along with the Bullish candle stick patterns that will most likely start to come in the middle of March.
Per Seasonality, Alcoa could have a massive rally into the beginning of May. I will be posting them all in my Whisper of the day videos as well as my twitter feed.
Until next time,
Stefanie Kammerman, has trained thousands of students worldwide how to Day Trade and Swing Trade over the past 22 years. She is the Founder and Managing Director of The Stock Whisperer Trading Company, www.thestockwhisperer.com where she runs an online educational trading room called “The Java Pit”. Her unique approach of old fashioned trading in a high tech world teaches her students how to trade by reading the tape and following the Dark Pool, which is how she spotted the last 9 corrections weeks before they happened.